War Will Increase Renewable Energy
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the strategic cost of relying on imported fossil fuels, particularly Russian pipeline gas. Although war initially lifted oil, gas and coal prices, it also pushed governments to accelerate renewable generation, electrification, storage and transmission investment. The strongest beneficiaries are equipment makers, renewable developers and grid suppliers positioned for faster permitting and greater public support. Fossil-fuel importers and energy-intensive companies face higher costs now and structural demand erosion as economies pursue domestic low-carbon power.
How this story could end...
The endings this story genuinely supports, written from the same evidence as the story updates. The value ranges are illustrative examples of how the affected companies as a group could re-rate — not forecasts, targets or advice.
Mapping out the endings…
How the two sides have traded
The bull and bear baskets for this story, equal-weighted and indexed so the two lines start together.
Each scenario's basket — 3 months
Both sides on one chart — 10 stocks on the bull side, 10 stocks on the bear side. Neither side is emphasised.
Each line tracks the 10 companies most exposed to this story, so a broad basket of loosely related names does not flatten it. The full list below is unchanged.
Jul 20, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 · 69 sessions
Equal-weighted performance of the 10 most exposed stocks over the last 3 months.
No data for HPS.A.TO, ENAG.MC, ELIA.BR
Most affected stocks
Bull case
Meidensha supplies substations, power-conversion systems and grid-control equipment that facilitate electrification and distributed generation.
LG Energy Solution supplies batteries for electric vehicles and stationary storage, both central to electrification and renewable balancing.
Samsung SDI’s battery cells and energy-storage systems address the grid-balancing requirements created by higher shares of intermittent wind and solar power.
Hitachi owns Hitachi Energy, a leading supplier of transformers, high-voltage equipment and HVDC systems for renewable-heavy grids.
Its switchgear, transformers, power-conversion systems and grid-automation equipment benefit from investment needed to connect renewables, storage and electrified loads.
Arteche produces instrument transformers, relays and grid-quality equipment that enable safe integration of decentralized and renewable generation.
Iljin Electric manufactures high-voltage transformers and power cables that can benefit from rising global utility spending on renewable interconnections and grid resilience.
WEG supplies generators, transformers, motors and automation systems used across wind farms, solar facilities, storage projects and modernized grids.
As a major producer of photovoltaic glass, Xinyi Solar supplies a critical component for global solar-module manufacturing.
Sieyuan supplies high-voltage switchgear, transformers and grid-automation equipment required to connect new renewable projects and reinforce transmission systems.
Bear case
Lufthansa remains highly exposed to volatile imported jet-fuel costs while long-term European decarbonization policy raises the cost of fossil-fuel-dependent aviation.
Heidelberg Materials' European cement operations consume substantial fuel and electricity, leaving margins exposed to wartime energy-price shocks and increasingly costly decarbonization requirements.
Salzgitter bears near-term gas, electricity and carbon-cost pressure as it undertakes a capital-intensive conversion from conventional steelmaking.
LANXESS faces margin pressure because specialty-chemical production consumes substantial energy and remains sensitive to European gas prices.
Wienerberger's energy-intensive brick and ceramic production is exposed to elevated European gas and electricity costs during the transition away from imported fossil fuels.
Ibstock's brick manufacturing requires significant natural gas, leaving production costs exposed while electrification and tighter carbon policy force additional investment.
Yara uses natural gas as the principal feedstock for ammonia, making fertilizer economics vulnerable to disruptions and high imported-gas prices.
Exxaro’s earnings remain heavily tied to thermal coal, which enjoyed a wartime price boost but faces structural demand erosion as renewable power and storage expand.
Snam’s core gas-transmission and storage assets face long-run utilization risk if electrification and renewable generation permanently reduce European natural-gas demand.
Solvay's soda ash and specialty-material operations are energy intensive, exposing the group to high European gas and power prices during the transition away from imported fuels.
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